US INFLATION FORECASTING
i360’s Data Science Team has developed granular forecasts of Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core Inflation (Core CPI), and Producer Price Index (PPI). These forecasts are currently ranked #1 among Market Consensus for directionality when compared to other economists. Get inflation forecasts weeks before traditional forecasters publish estimates with our “whisper” numbers!
Diligent Variable Selection
We meticulously analyze thousands of curated variables and perform feature extractions and transformations to identify meaningful signals. We narrow down the selection to the most promising variables.
Powering Accurate Inflation Insights
- Thorough model comparison: We evaluate thousands of different models to identify the most promising ones for accurate inflation forecasting.
- Utilizing interpretable models: We use Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and exogenous variable models, which provide clear and understandable insights into inflation dynamics.
- Fine-tuning for better performance: We carefully optimize specific models that show high potential value, as well as other models that can enhance the accuracy of our forecasts.
- Weighted and aggregated results: We combine and analyze the outcomes of multiple models to create higher-level models that offer comprehensive and reliable inflation forecasts.
Dynamic Data Insights
- Comprehensive data collection: We gather data from various public sources through multiple channels.
- Continuous updates: These sources are regularly updated to ensure the latest data is incorporated into our forecasts.
- Expanding data breadth: We extensively utilize our internal resources to expand the range of potentially valuable variables for a more comprehensive analysis.
Tailored Solutions
- Available through API or digital report
- Updated reports available on a weekly basis
- Commentary on important changing variable, new data sources and model updates
- Detailed reports such as deep dives and commentary on medium term drivers available
- Statistical summaries provide a breakdown of individual models used in forecasts
