Traveler Counts

Is our data correlative with actual travel and jet fuel volumes?

i360 surveyed Americans’ travel plans daily for the past two and a half years through its longitudinal survey—Consumer Pulse. To examine whether this data correlates to actual travel and jet fuel volumes, i360 analysts constructed a dataset with the following data:

• i360 CP % Survey Response: Adults planning to fly at least once in the next six months (non-business). This is one of the many proprietary time series maintained and updated in our Consumer Pulse survey database. While we chose to look at the aggregate data, many other views are available.¹
• TSA Traveler Checkpoint Numbers: Reported by DHS / TSA as a % of 2019 Average
• EIA Weekly Jet Fuel Supplied Volumes as a % of 2019 Average

Consumer Pulse: Planned Personal Airline Travel, TSA Travelers, & Jet Fuel Volume

¹Each Consumer Pulse response comes pre-filtered by income, age, race, gender, region, political affinity and more. These series are easily accessed, time stamped and model-ready.

Above is a plot of the data starting in 2020. Jet Fuel Volumes track extremely well with TSA’s passenger count. In fact, preliminary modeling suggests that TSA’s passenger count is predictive of Jet Fuel Supplied volumes. This is expected—so how does Consumer Pulse give us an edge?

i360’s CP data, demonstrates two significant advantages:

• Responses lead TSA and EIA data by approximately 60 days. The super imposed red arrows show several instances in which significant moves in our survey response data precede moves in TSA and EIA data.
• i360’s survey data signals consumer intent. Starting in Dec 2021 (imposed orange box), TSA and EIA show a sharp drop corresponding with Omicron, but i360’s consumer intentions demonstrated sustained, high interest in travel.